There may be trouble ahead

Is Palm Springs "in trouble"? Apparently, yes, if the headline writers of SF Gate are to be believed.

I quote..

The tourism industry in Palm Springs is growing fidgety as Canadian visitors reconsider returning to California, given the ongoing strain on the relationship between the two North American countries. Hoping to assuage this tension, Palm Springs has launched a full-throated celebration of Canada across its downtown and airport.

I noticed this "full-throated" celebration last week, in the form of the Palm Springs [hearts] Canada banners fluttering along Palm Canyon, reminding departing snowbirds that our little bubble-in-a-bubble city couldn't be further removed - politically, or geographically - from the toxic administration in Washington DC.

Will the campaign work? I suspect not. For ̶g̶o̶o̶d̶ ̶o̶r̶ ill, America is now one nation under Trump, and international visitors are rightly telling us where they plan to stick their tourist and part-time resident dollars. Airlines are reporting huge drops in inbound flights, and anecdotally many of my British and Canadian friends have decided to stay away for the next four years (or longer).

Then there's the awkward fact that Palm Springs might have voted strongly blue, but Riverside county was one of a handful of blue counties in California that Trump flipped in 2024. In other words, our city didn't vote for this, but our region absolutely did.

So, a city in trouble!

Maybe.

During COVID the city balanced out fewer Canadian visitors with an uptick in domestic visitors who could no longer travel internationally. That might happen again as hostility to Americans increases abroad and tariff wars force us all to cut back spending. Similarly a recession can mean slashed interest rates, combined with more underrepresented folks from red states deciding this might be a good time to relocate to a more inclusive and welcoming city. All good for house prices and local spending.

Then again... those tariffs. A lot of Palm Springs' new residents are recent retirees, the same group that's being most directly affected by the current market crash. For everyone else: NBC News estimates the average American household will pay $4000 more this year on groceries and other goods thanks to the current trade war. And that's assuming the tariffs stay at their currently paused level. Last summer was bad enough for local retail thanks to the record temperatures – add in higher prices and there's a chance a lot of stores in town and across the wider region won't make it out alive.

(Our little bookstore has one benefit here: Many books, except full color titles like cookbooks and kids books, are printed in the US and so not subject to tariffs. Many others are exempted from tariffs, after the Trump administration realized last time that a tax on bibles - mostly printed in China - doesn't play well with their base.)

Conclusion: I don't know about "in trouble". Whether the city loses, benefits, or stays even as a result of the current chaos still feels like a flip of the coin to me. But I'm certainly hearing a lot of bafflement and anger here at America's completely self-inflicted economic injury. And a lot of sympathy for those who are choosing to stay away until it heals.